The Melting of Greenland
Published on 18 Jan 2007 at 2:18 am.
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There was an interesting article in the NYT: The Melting of Greenland
Greenland is melting a lot faster than expected (~2-3x). It had been thought that the ice sheet’s reaction to climate warming would be slow, but the computer models are all wrong…its fast. The problem is that since the computer models are wrong, we can’t predict how much melting you will have over any given period of time. Past
predictions were 100-200 years. Word on the street (the scientific circles) is that it will be more like 30-50 years.
The important thing to remember is that the Arctic Ocean melting, while bad for Polar Bears, is not bad for us since the ice is already floating in the water. So Arctic Ocean melt will not raise the water levels. Nor will pieces of the Antarctic ice shelves make a difference in water levels. Granted the decrease in albedo will accelerate warming.
However, the ice on Greenland is on land (as is much of the ice on the Antarctic continent) and is sloughing off into the ocean as it melts. If all the ice on Greenland alone melts, the sea levels will rise 20
feet!!! (Yes, this is what Al Gore said in his movie…it is true).
A 20 foot sea level rise equates with the loss of lower Manhattan, the loss of much of Florida…not to mention what it will do to Pacific Islands and coastal cities in the third world.
A good friend of mine estimates that parts of Florida will be gone or severely damaged within 20-30 years…yes the beach condos, the Keys, the Everglades, and my favorite…Sanibel Island.
The first inhabited island was lost last year to the rising seas in the Indian Ocean. Tuvalu and others are not far behind.
We are in for a world of hurt…and after scientists have been warning us since the 1970s, only now are a few people just waking up.
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The recent warm spell in the northern US a week or so ago was a big wake-up call to many individuals. However, one must remember how this works. The global temperature is rising only a few degrees. The fact that we had 70 degree weather in New York and 60 degree weather Wisconsin in January is a consequence of global warming, but it is not the warming itself. The warming effect by itself is only a couple degrees…not 30-50 degrees. However, warming the global atmosphere by a few degrees means that there is a lot more thermal energy floating around…A LOT
Weather patterns are a result of the Earth trying to balance the temperatures between the hot equator and the cold poles…nature abhors a gradient. Near the equator, the main mechanism is the Hadley cell which lifts hot air high into the atmosphere and carries it northward to about 30 degrees latitude and brings it back down again. The Coriolis Force deflects this cell as it moves northward and southward and forms the tradewinds, which give rise to the Jet Streams. Thus this motion of air from the equator poleward gets deflected to the east in the north and the west in the south forming the Jet Streams that our weather patterns. With all this extra thermal energy around, the patterns by which this heat is transported are changing. We don’t fully understand why at some temperatures you have one pattern and at others you have another pattern. There are laws that govern which pattern forms at which energy, but we dont understand how this works yet. Mainly, because we have been stuck with one mainly example…Earth. That makes generalization difficult.
If I understand this correctly, the 70 degree weather we had was a result of the polar jet stream shifting eastward keeping the cold northern air away from United States and allowing the warm southern air to move further north…which although welcome, is unusual and worrisome. Here is the explanation from NOAA. The result is that the warm air went further north to help relieve some of this temperature gradient between the equator and the north pole. El Nino probably was a factor in this, but its unusual strength this year is also a consequence of the global warming. El Nino is as much of a result as it is a subsequent cause.
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Some of you may have heard that NOAA reported that this is just El Nino and not global warming. They later recanted and noted that global warming is playing a part in the strong El Nino. This is perhaps better summarized at the site RealClimate. When you hear statements like this from government agencies, keep in mind that the US govt scientists are still being muzzled by this administration. While many scientists have defied them, many administrators are still playing along. This is irresponsible of this president’s administration, and is representative of his “What, me worry?” attitude, which runs counter to the constant reminders that *we* should all be worried.
It is important to ask why some people are so against talking about global warming. Is it because we are not totally certain? No, the scientists are pretty clear about what they know and what they dont know. They have been stating that the Earth has been warming for almost 30 years now, but they have been very clear that they do not know the exact consequences and that they do not know the details of the interplay between our actions and the natural actions and reactions.
You already know why we arent allowed to discuss this issue. The answer is once again: OIL. The people who make money selling us fossil fuel to burn dont want us to stop. Simple as that.
We are a lazy and irresponsible culture who refuses to work to cut back on what we use and refuse to work to find alternate energy sources. Such activities are deemed to lie in the lame world of the hippie. In my opinion driving around in a 10-20 mpg SUV when a 35 mpg Honda Civic will do is lame. (Granted, not everyone can fit in a Civic…so get an Accord…or an energy-efficient equivalent)
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What I dont understand is why many of the more religious folks in this country actively deny that Global Warming is happening and is in part due to what we are doing to our atmosphere. What is their investiment in this “nothing is happening” theory? Why do they care so strongly? And why are they so unwilling to look at the evidence? I should be more careful here with my blanket statement, since a large group of evangelists have become active in raising awareness about global warming.
Often I hear that this is God’s Will.
Maybe…but one of the Christian explanations for God allowing evil to exist in this world is that He wants us to stop it…not Him. In my opinion, attributing things like this to God’s Will is a cop-out. It is lazy and irresponsible…and I might even go as far as sinful if we are the cause and instead we blame God.
It used to be God’s will that lighting would take out entire villages. For this reason, when Benjamin Franklin announced the invention the lightning rod, he explicitly thanked God for divulging the secret of the lightning rod to him: “It has pleased God in his Goodness to Mankind, at length to discover to them the Means of securing their Habitations and other Buildings from Mischief by Thunder and Lightning.” (see an excellent article on Benjamin Franklin in Physics Today) This was done in part to reduce the backlash that he expected from the religious leaders at the time who believed that lightning was God’s will and a punishment for villages and cities infested with sin. There was actually a backlash and a religious opposition to the lightning rod, but it was minor, and was rapidly outweighed by the benefits of adopting such a safety system…one that we don’t think twice about today. This invention was such a big deal…Benjamin Franklin became a world-wide celebrity as he “tamed the hand of God”. His reputation in fact played no small role in assisting him to convince the French to help us in our revolution against the British. If we had not received help from the French, that American revolution would have not succeeded.
God used to punish people with diseases, like the Black Plague. Fortunately, with a little knowledge, we understand that this was caused by microbes that were easily transmitted in the pestilent conditions that typified Europe of the late 1340s. Can you imagine what they would have thought of the scientific explanation back
then?!? Little bugs that you cant see? RIGHT!!!
The burnings of Jews and other foreigners at the stake didn’t help slow the progress of the Black Plague. Instead, washing your hands in clean water would have done some good. It would have also helped to
not urinate and deficate in city streets and in the water that you drink. True, the Black Plague was not transmitted that way, but as we know today, a clean city and a healthy immune system goes a long way
to once again, “tame the hand of God.”
Let’s face it, the Global Warming issue is not one of God’s Will. Nor is it an entirely natural effect. We know that CO2 is responsible. Furthermore, because we know how much coal, oil and gas we produce, sell and burn, we know how much we contribute to atmospheric CO2 release. Volcanoes? No. Our CO2 output is at least 10 times greater than the CO2 release from all recent and ongoing volcanic eruptions.
We are the major contributors…its time to face up to that.
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The radius of the Earth is about 6400 km and the atmosphere is only 100 km thick…1/64 th of the radius. The atmosphere is a thin shell that reaches in height a distance less than the Milwaukee to Chicago, Washington DC to Richmond VA, and more like San Francisco to San Jose.
It is a fragile little inverted fishbowl we live in…and we have to take some responsibility for the conditions of it.
We learned not to urinate in our well water and deficate in our gutters.
Soon we will learn not to stink up the air.
Kevin Knuth
Albany NY
